稳扎稳打！金价接近公允价值，降息东风下难再大跌？

Core Viewpoint - Current gold prices are approaching their fair value despite not reaching the historical high of approximately $4,380 per ounce set in October, according to market strategist Nitesh Shah from WisdomTree [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The global economy is filled with uncertainty, and while gold prices are volatile, they have established higher support levels after each breakthrough [1] - Investors waiting for a significant pullback in gold prices may be disappointed, as the precious metal is expected to gain solid support from a weakening economy, which will likely force the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates [1] - Despite a large profit-taking event in October, selling pressure on gold has remained limited, with support levels maintained above $4,000 per ounce [1] Group 2: Price Predictions - There is a risk of gold prices pulling back to $3,800 per ounce, but strong support is expected at that level [2] - A drop below $4,000 would require significant momentum, which is deemed nearly impossible under current conditions [3] - For gold prices to decline significantly, economic activity would need to be exceptionally strong, necessitating further interest rate increases, which could lead to a recession, making gold an attractive safe-haven asset [3] Group 3: Federal Reserve Influence - Recent shifts in market expectations regarding Federal Reserve interest rate cuts have provided new upward momentum for gold [3] - The market's probability of a rate cut in December has approached 90% due to weak economic data [3] - Uncertainty surrounding the leadership of the Federal Reserve after Chairman Powell's term ends in May 2024 is expected to provide substantial support for gold [3] - Any political pressure that questions the independence of the central bank could lead other central banks to diversify their asset allocations, increasing gold holdings and reducing reliance on the dollar [3]