经济学家预计未来数月关税影响更明显 美国正自食恶果

Core Insights - The article highlights that U.S. businesses and consumers are significantly impacted by the country's tariff policies, complicating the Federal Reserve's efforts to combat inflation, leading to a situation where the U.S. is "suffering the consequences of its own actions" [1] Group 1: Tariff Impact on Prices - Initial months of tariff implementation show that U.S. companies are absorbing the costs and passing some onto consumers, with a notable increase in prices expected [1] - Since the imposition of tariffs in early March, import prices have risen by 4%, while domestic product prices have increased by 2% [1] - The largest price increases are seen in products that the U.S. cannot produce domestically, such as coffee, or those from countries facing significant tariff penalties [1] Group 2: Cost Absorption by Sellers - Despite the price increases, they remain lower than the corresponding tariff rates, indicating that sellers are also absorbing some of the costs [2] - Research indicates that foreign exporters have been raising prices in U.S. dollar terms, transferring some costs related to currency depreciation to American buyers [2] Group 3: Ongoing Tariff Policy and Inflation Risks - The average level of U.S. import tariffs has risen from approximately 2% to an estimated 17%, with ongoing negotiations among exporters, importers, and consumers regarding the distribution of tariff costs [2] - U.S. inflation faces upward risks, and while the Federal Reserve has recently cut rates due to concerns over a weak job market, there is disagreement among policymakers about whether tariff-driven inflation will subside [2] - The anticipated effects of U.S. tariffs have not fully materialized, with expectations that these impacts will become more pronounced in the coming months [2]