推动加息，日本央行如何“巧取”高市早苗

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan is moving towards a level of interest rates not seen in nearly three decades, marking a significant monetary policy decision and a carefully orchestrated political communication strategy [1] Group 1: Political Foundations for Rate Hike - The biggest challenge for the Bank of Japan's Governor Ueda was to clear political obstacles for the rate hike since Prime Minister Kishi's administration took office on October 21 [2] - Concerns over the uncontrolled depreciation of the yen have become a powerful tool for the Bank of Japan to persuade politicians [2] - A pivotal meeting occurred on November 18 between Ueda and Prime Minister Kishi, where the Prime Minister acknowledged the central bank's plan for gradual rate hikes to achieve price stability [2] Group 2: Communication Strategy - Following discussions with government officials, the Bank of Japan's monetary affairs officials drafted a speech for Ueda to signal policy direction ahead of the December 18-19 rate review meeting [3] - The speech praised former Prime Minister Abe's "Abenomics," explaining how raising low borrowing costs now would support long-term stable growth [3] - Ueda's pragmatic and cautious approach has helped alleviate concerns among politicians about hasty policy normalization [3] Group 3: Future Challenges - While the path for the December rate hike seems clear, the more significant challenge lies in communicating the long-term interest rate trajectory [4] - There is a lack of consensus on Japan's neutral interest rate, estimated by the Bank of Japan to be in a broad range of 1% to 2.5% [4] - Market expectations indicate that the Bank of Japan may raise rates to around 1.5% by mid-2027, but there are differing views within the government regarding the pace of future hikes [4]