Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-12-04 09:46Core Viewpoint - The Chinese traditional medicine sector is experiencing increased activity due to a surge in flu cases, with the Chinese Medicine ETF (560080) showing a slight decline but still attracting investor interest [1][9]. Market Performance - The Chinese Medicine ETF (560080) closed down 0.91% today, remaining in a consolidation phase, with a trading volume exceeding 84 million yuan, a 7% increase from the previous trading day [1]. - The ETF's closing premium rate was 0.06%, indicating ongoing investor attention, with two out of the last five days seeing inflows [1]. - The ETF's latest scale reached 2.598 billion yuan, leading its peers in the same category [1]. Stock Performance - Most constituent stocks of the Chinese Medicine ETF closed in the red, with notable declines including: - Pianzaihuang down 1.59% to 168.75 yuan, marking a five-year low [3]. - Yiling Pharmaceutical down over 3%, and Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical down over 2% [3]. - Conversely, stocks like Yunnan Baiyao and Jilin Aodong saw slight increases [3]. Valuation Metrics - As of December 3, the TTM price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the ETF's index was 25.12, positioned at the 23.11% percentile over the past decade, suggesting that the index is cheaper than 76% of the time historically [5]. - The TTM PE is just 0.38 away from the calculated opportunity value, indicating a potential entry point for investors [5]. Historical Performance - The year-to-date return for the Chinese Medicine Index remains negative at -2.24%, with a decline of 8.13% projected for 2024 [7]. - The index has shown a pattern of consecutive declines, with four consecutive negative years if 2023 is considered a down year [7]. Demand Drivers - The recent flu outbreak has led to a significant increase in demand for respiratory medications, with flu cases reported rising by 53.8% compared to the previous week [9]. - The flu activity is at its highest level since 2022, which is expected to boost the demand for related medications [9]. Industry Outlook - Analysts from Zheshang Securities predict an inflection point for the Chinese medicine sector, suggesting that the sector will attract more investment due to its stable cash flow and lower volatility compared to other sectors [9]. - The industry is expected to see improved revenue and net profit growth in the second half of 2025, aided by reduced cost pressures from declining raw material prices [9].