富兰克林邓普顿称英国30年期国债收益率将达6% 警告财政清算日终将来临

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the UK government will struggle to manage its spending, leading to a forecasted rise in the 30-year UK government bond yield to 6% within the next year [1] - Despite the Chancellor's budget successfully increasing the fiscal buffer, it relies on a series of tax measures that will take years to implement [1] - The tax measures are described as "very scattered," and the prediction of a 6% yield remains, even though the budget was generally well-received in the market [1] Group 2 - The UK debt management office has reduced the issuance of long-term bonds, but uncertainty surrounding the budget and inflation outlook offsets the impact of reduced supply [2] - There is difficulty in predicting how much revenue will be generated from the announced tax measures, with actual collections likely to fall short of expectations [2] - The tax measures are set to take effect around the next general election in 2029, which may lead the government to avoid politically unfavorable actions close to the election [2]