瑞银对话哈佛大学教授艾利森：从“修昔底德陷阱”到“AI竞技”，国际关系进入新阶段

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the complex relationship between China and the United States, highlighting recent positive developments and the potential for cooperation, particularly in the field of artificial intelligence (AI) [1][2][3]. Group 1: US-China Relations - The meeting between the leaders of China and the US in Busan in November resulted in important agreements, signaling a positive direction for bilateral relations [1]. - Both countries recognize the intertwined nature of their economic interests and the necessity of finding a coexistence path, especially with the upcoming US midterm elections in 2026 [2][3]. - Graham Allison emphasizes that the "Thucydides Trap" is not inevitable, suggesting that both nations need to exercise strategic imagination to avoid conflict [3]. Group 2: Investment Outlook - International investors have shown renewed interest in the Chinese market this year, with expectations that the attractiveness of Chinese assets will continue to grow by 2026 [2]. - Market volatility is anticipated in Q4 2025, but investors are looking forward to sector rotations, particularly in high-dividend, traditional consumer, and financial sectors, which could enhance overall asset valuations [2]. Group 3: AI as a Cooperation Opportunity - AI presents both risks and opportunities for US-China relations, with the potential for collaboration in addressing cross-border challenges posed by AI technology [9][10]. - Allison notes that while AI could lead to competition, it also offers a rare chance for cooperation, as neither country can tackle the associated risks alone [10]. - The differing approaches to AI between the US and China highlight a potential area for collaboration, with China focusing on integrating AI across various industries rather than pursuing a singular goal of achieving general artificial intelligence [8][9].