Core Viewpoint - Bernstein maintains a $510 price target for Coinbase, suggesting the company is transitioning into an "everything exchange" despite its current share price being significantly lower than historical highs [1][4]. Company Performance - Coinbase shares have declined approximately 11% over the past year and are down about 29% from their all-time peak, even as Bitcoin has surpassed $91,000 [2]. Market Context - Analysts describe the current market as "fragile," with volatility in crypto prices affecting equities linked to the crypto sector. However, they note that the current downturn does not exhibit the characteristics of previous crypto market crashes [3]. Business Evolution - The core of Bernstein's bullish thesis is Coinbase's ongoing efforts to diversify its revenue streams away from volatile spot trading, evolving into a full-stack financial platform that includes services traditionally associated with broker-dealers and fintech companies [4]. Revenue Diversification - Stablecoins are becoming a significant part of Coinbase's revenue mix, but investors often overlook ancillary business segments like custody, staking, and infrastructure fees, viewing them merely as extensions of crypto trading [5]. Regulatory Environment - Clearer regulatory guidelines in the U.S. are seen as a crucial factor that could enhance the valuation of Coinbase's ancillary business lines, allowing it to compete more effectively with offshore rivals [5]. Token Issuance Strategy - Coinbase is increasingly focusing on token issuance through a launchpad model, which could create a "flywheel" effect by linking issuance, listing, and trading activity [6]. Upcoming Developments - A key near-term catalyst for Coinbase is the product showcase scheduled for December 17, which is expected to introduce innovations in tokenized equities, prediction markets, and other tools aimed at expanding the platform's offerings beyond spot crypto trading [7].
Analyst predicts 90% surge for sinking crypto stock