红星观察| 国债被“抛售”，债市遭暴击，日本恐面临3年前英国类似的金融风暴

Group 1 - The yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds has surpassed 1.94%, indicating a significant decline in market prices for fixed-income securities [1][3] - Japan's GDP has contracted for the first time in six quarters, with a year-on-year decline of 1.8% in the third quarter of 2025, leading to substantial drops in the stock market [3] - The depreciation of the yen against the dollar is nearing the psychological threshold of 160, contributing to investor concerns [3] Group 2 - Japan's export-dependent economy has been severely impacted by high tariffs from the U.S., with a 1.2% decline in goods and services exports in the third quarter of 2025, and a 10.2% year-on-year drop in exports to the U.S. during the first half of the fiscal year [4] - The automotive sector has faced significant losses, with major companies reporting a combined net profit drop of 30%, exceeding 1.5 trillion yen [4] - The tourism industry has also suffered, with over 540,000 flight cancellations from Chinese tourists, leading to potential losses in the sector amounting to trillions of yen [4] Group 3 - A supplementary budget of 21.3 trillion yen for the fiscal year 2025 has been approved, significantly higher than the previous year's budget, raising concerns among bondholders [5] - The budget primarily focuses on direct financial aid, including subsidies for gas and electricity, and rice vouchers for local governments, which has drawn criticism for its lack of sustainable funding [5] Group 4 - The current fiscal strategy of tax cuts and subsidies has drawn parallels to the financial crisis in the UK in 2022, where similar measures led to a loss of market confidence and significant economic turmoil [7] - The UK experience serves as a cautionary tale for Japan, highlighting the potential risks associated with unbacked fiscal policies and the rapid rise in bond yields [7]