高盛最新研判：12月降息稳了，但2026年Fed路径"迷雾重重"

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs' latest macro research report emphasizes the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut path, indicating a 25 basis point cut at the December FOMC meeting is almost certain, but future policy direction remains uncertain [1][4]. Group 1: Employment Data - Despite the September non-farm payrolls appearing to exceed expectations, Goldman Sachs estimates the underlying employment growth is only 39k per month, significantly lower than market perceptions [1][4]. - The report suggests that the weakness in the labor market is becoming "too entrenched," indicating that even a modest cyclical growth acceleration expected next year may not reverse the employment downturn [3][7]. Group 2: Future Rate Cuts - Goldman Sachs anticipates two rate cuts in 2026, projected for March and June, with a terminal rate expected to fall within the 3%-3.25% range, but notes that the risks are skewed to the downside [1][4]. Group 3: Additional Insights - The internal layoff tracker from Goldman Sachs shows a significant increase in mentions of layoffs during corporate earnings calls, which may serve as a leading indicator compared to initial jobless claims [3][7]. - The report also touches on topics such as the potential impacts of "China Shock 2.0," the possibility of a peace agreement in Ukraine, and bullish sentiments regarding copper prices [3][7].