屈臣氏或在香港英国两地上市，能否撑起2000亿估值？

Core Viewpoint - CK Hutchison Holdings is planning to list its subsidiary Watsons Group in Hong Kong and the UK, aiming to raise up to $2 billion, with preparations underway for a potential IPO in the first half of next year [2][3]. Group 1: Company Overview - Watsons Group is one of the largest health and beauty retail chains globally, with a complex history regarding its IPO plans, which have been under scrutiny since 2014 [2]. - The company was previously valued at over HKD 300 billion (approximately RMB 237.65 billion) during its initial listing discussions in 2014 [2]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Watsons has faced declining revenue since 2013, with a significant drop in sales reported in 2022, where total sales were HKD 17.579 billion, a 23% decrease from the previous year [5]. - The company's EBITDA for 2022 was HKD 1.09 billion, down 59% year-on-year, and its gross margin has fallen to a low of 1% [5]. - In 2023, Watsons reported a revenue of HKD 16.453 billion (approximately RMB 15.145 billion), a 6% decline compared to the previous year [5]. Group 3: Market Challenges - The rise of e-commerce platforms like Tmall and JD.com has eroded Watsons' advantages in the offline retail space, leading to a decline in its market position [5][10]. - The company has attempted to adapt by enhancing its online presence and launching digital transformation initiatives since 2018, but its effectiveness remains uncertain [6][7]. Group 4: Valuation and Future Prospects - Watsons is projected to achieve annual revenue exceeding HKD 200 billion, with a potential valuation of RMB 200 billion, positioning it as one of the largest consumer retail IPOs in Hong Kong in recent years [9]. - Analysts express caution regarding Watsons' growth potential, attributing its performance issues to rapid e-commerce growth and previous over-expansion [10]. - The retail sector faces broader challenges, with competitors also struggling, highlighting the need for Watsons to develop a new growth narrative amidst a saturated market [11].