特朗普心腹掌美联储？降息梦碎！3大铁律扎心

Core Viewpoint - The article argues that even if Trump's favored candidate, Hassett, takes charge of the Federal Reserve, aggressive interest rate cuts are unrealistic due to fundamental economic conditions and institutional constraints [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Conditions - The current economic fundamentals do not support interest rate cuts, as the Federal Reserve's dual mandate of full employment and price stability is not being met. UBS estimates that the core PCE inflation rate will remain around 3.5% by 2026, significantly above the 2% target [4]. - The labor market remains strong, with an average monthly job addition of 189,000 and a stable unemployment rate of 4%. Lowering rates in such an environment would contradict the Federal Reserve's policy logic [4]. Group 2: Institutional Constraints - The Federal Reserve's decision-making is not solely influenced by the President, as established by the 1951 agreement ensuring its independence. Hassett would face significant opposition from hawkish committee members who emphasize caution regarding inflation risks [3][6]. - Key voting members, such as those from the Cleveland and Dallas Federal Reserves, have consistently advocated for a cautious approach to policy easing, making it unlikely for Hassett to push for aggressive cuts [6]. Group 3: Leadership Dynamics - Jerome Powell, the current Fed Chair, may choose to remain on the board after his term ends in May 2026, which would pose a significant obstacle to Hassett's potential aggressive policies. Powell's commitment to maintaining the Fed's independence further complicates Hassett's position [6][7]. - The market's optimistic pricing of rapid interest rate cuts diverges from the reality of the Fed's operational logic, which has historically prioritized price stability over aggressive easing [6][7].