贝莱德智库：美联储12月要降息了？劳动力市场降温成关键推力

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of BlackRock's research is that the U.S. labor market is cooling, leading to expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut this month, supported by AI themes [1] - The market has largely priced in a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week, with BlackRock agreeing that a "no hiring, no firing" stagnation will provide room for further cuts in 2026 [2] - The U.S. inflation remains significantly above the 2% target, but the Federal Reserve has clarified its rate cut path, reducing the likelihood of policy conflicts that were present earlier this year [2] Group 2 - BlackRock maintains a neutral view on UK government bonds in the short term but is more optimistic in the long term due to the lower neutral interest rate compared to other developed markets [3] - The UK government is attempting to reduce its fiscal deficit and aims for a budget surplus within five years, which has surprised the market and indicates a balance between market credibility and political trust [2] - The recent UK budget plan frontloads spending while the effects of tax increases will be delayed, leading to a neutral stance on UK bonds in the immediate term [3]