贝莱德智库：劳动力市场降温成美联储12月降息关键推力

Core Insights - The article highlights the challenges faced by the Federal Reserve in assessing the economic situation due to delays in data releases caused by the prolonged U.S. government shutdown [1] - The Federal Reserve is concerned about a potential further weakening of the labor market, which necessitates a "risk management" approach to interest rate cuts [1] - BlackRock believes that the U.S. labor market is currently in a state of "no hiring, no layoffs," indicating a stagnation in employment growth since the beginning of the year [1] Labor Market Analysis - Employment growth in the U.S. has slowed down, with both labor demand and supply decreasing, primarily due to a sharp decline in immigration [1] - The equilibrium level of job growth required to maintain a stable unemployment rate has decreased, which explains the steady wage growth and only a slight increase in the unemployment rate, which remains historically low [1] Interest Rate Outlook - Given the data indicating a cooling labor market, BlackRock anticipates that the Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates this month [1] - The combination of this backdrop and the momentum from AI themes supports a risk-on stance in the market [1]