Di Yi Cai Jing Zi Xun·2025-12-04 15:36Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the U.S. stock market, particularly focusing on the performance of technology and AI-related stocks, which have lagged behind other sectors, raising concerns about an "AI bubble" that major financial institutions are now challenging [2][8]. Group 1: Market Performance - Since October 28, the S&P 500 index has seen a shift in leading sectors, with biotech companies like Eli Lilly, Cardinal Health, and Biogen showing significant gains of 28%, 26%, and 21% respectively, while the overall biotech sector rose by 10.7% [3]. - In contrast, the S&P 500 Information Technology index has declined by 4.2%, with the "Big Seven" tech stocks down by 1.3%, except for Alphabet, which increased by 18.1% [3][6]. - Nvidia, a leading AI stock, has dropped by 9.7%, and AI-related stocks overall have seen declines of 8.4% [3][6]. Group 2: AI Bubble Debate - Major institutions like BlackRock and Bank of America are disputing the notion of an "AI bubble," asserting that the current AI trend is driven by genuine corporate investments and productivity growth, rather than irrational exuberance seen during the internet bubble [2][8]. - BlackRock's Jean Boivin emphasized that the scale and speed of AI expansion make the bubble narrative incomplete, suggesting that AI spending could significantly boost U.S. GDP growth beyond the historical 2% trend [8][10]. - The estimated global corporate AI spending could reach between $5 trillion to $8 trillion by 2030, indicating a substantial commitment to AI investments [8]. Group 3: Investment Dynamics - Despite skepticism towards tech and AI stocks, companies are increasing their investments in AI data centers, which have shown strong earnings growth in recent financial reports [7][9]. - The capital expenditure by U.S. tech firms has risen from 30% of operating cash flow a decade ago to 60% now, although this is still below the 140% peak during the internet bubble [10][11]. - Bank of America predicts that the massive capital expenditures for AI infrastructure will reach $400 billion by 2025 and $510 billion by 2026 for major AI companies [10].