Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG): A Bull Case Theory

Core Thesis - Booking Holdings Inc. is undergoing a structural transformation from a cyclical travel company to a high-margin payments platform, which is expected to enhance its profitability and market valuation [2][6]. Financial Performance - As of November 28th, Booking Holdings Inc.'s share price was $4,914.69, with trailing and forward P/E ratios of 31.99 and 18.76 respectively [1]. - EBITDA margins have reached 47%, indicating that facilitating payments is generating incremental revenue faster than incremental costs [3]. Business Model Transformation - The company has shifted to a merchant-of-record model, with 72% of transactions processed through this model, up from 50% two years ago, allowing Booking to control the entire payment flow [3]. - This shift is leading to increased float income, working-capital leverage, and scalability, characteristics more typical of fintech companies [3]. Strategic Initiatives - The merchant model enhances the Connected Trip bundling and Genius loyalty programs, which improve customer retention and lifetime value [4][5]. - The $457 million impairment related to KAYAK is viewed as a strategic decision rather than a sign of weakness, as AI is commoditizing meta-search, while Booking's value lies in its ability to orchestrate multi-vertical travel transactions [4]. Market Positioning - Booking is positioning itself as the transaction and settlement layer for global travel, leveraging network effects, data scale, and regulatory complexity [6]. - If the merchant mix surpasses 75% and Connected Trip adoption continues to accelerate, the market may re-rate Booking as a global payments platform rather than just a travel company [6]. Historical Context - A previous bullish thesis highlighted the travel rebound and Booking's global platform strength, with the stock price appreciating approximately 7.46% since that coverage [7].