Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Weaker than the market" investment rating for the U.S. stock market [1] Core Insights - The U.S. stock market shows initial signs of recovery, with the S&P 500 rising by 1.6% and the Nasdaq by 2.1% [3] - Among 22 sectors, 20 experienced capital inflows, with significant inflows into semiconductor products and equipment (+$46.6 billion) and automotive and automotive parts (+$22.5 billion) [4] - Earnings expectations for the S&P 500 constituents have been adjusted upward by 0.4%, with notable increases in banking (+1.7%) and semiconductor products and equipment (+1.0%) [5] Summary by Sections Price Trends - The S&P 500 increased by 1.6%, while the Nasdaq rose by 2.1% [3] - The automotive and automotive parts sector saw the highest increase at +6.1%, followed by media and entertainment (+4.0%) and food and staples retailing (+3.6%) [3] Capital Flows - Estimated capital inflow for S&P 500 constituents was +$91.7 billion this week, up from +$12.5 billion the previous week [4] - The semiconductor products and equipment sector led with a capital inflow of +$46.6 billion [4] Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for the S&P 500 has been raised by 0.4% this week [5] - The banking sector saw the largest upward revision in earnings expectations at +1.7% [5]

Core Insights - Airbnb Inc. has significantly contributed to the mainstream acceptance of alternative accommodations and is expanding into experiences and services [1] - Booking Holdings Inc. continues to maintain its competitive position in the travel and accommodation industry [1] Company Analysis - Airbnb's role in the market has been pivotal, with a focus on diversifying its offerings beyond just accommodation [1] - Booking Holdings is highlighted for its strategic positioning and ongoing developments in the travel sector [1] Industry Trends - The alternative accommodation market is evolving, with companies like Airbnb leading the charge [1] - The competitive landscape is marked by significant players like Booking Holdings, indicating a robust market environment [1]

Vladimir Dimitrov, CFA is a former strategy consultant within the field of brand and intangible assets valuation. During his career in the City of London he has been working with some of the largest global brands within the technology, telecom and banking sectors. He graduated from the London School of Economics and is interested in finding reasonably priced businesses with sustainable long-term competitive advantages.Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of t ...

Vladimir Dimitrov, CFA is a former strategy consultant within the field of brand and intangible assets valuation. During his career in the City of London he has been working with some of the largest global brands within the technology, telecom and banking sectors. He graduated from the London School of Economics and is interested in finding reasonably priced businesses with sustainable long-term competitive advantages.Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of t ...

Booking Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:BKNG) is one of the stocks to buy according to billionaire Ray Dalio’s Bridgewater Associates. On October 7, Citizens reiterated its “Market Outperform” rating on Booking Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:BKNG) stock and maintained the $6,500 price target. The analysts highlighted Booking Holdings’ competitive strengths, including its broad diversification, strong global brand, and extensive product offerings across hotels, flights, rental cars, and activities. They noted that the company ...

Core Insights - The 2026 travel landscape is characterized by increased exploration, spontaneity, and a shift towards impulse travel, with travelers embracing both familiar and new experiences [2][5][8] Travel Trends - Travelers are expected to spend an average of 15 days on leisure travel in 2026, with an increase in travel budgets by approximately $350 [2][5] - "Little Treat Travel" is on the rise, with 65% of travelers booking trips as a form of self-indulgence [6][10] - The Midwest is gaining popularity, with 63% of travelers expressing increased interest in visiting the region [6][10] - Nostalgia is influencing travel choices, as 73% of travelers are drawn to trips that reconnect them with their past [6][10] - Adventure-focused beach vacations are becoming more popular, with 74% of travelers seeking exciting beach experiences [7][10] Emerging Travel Behaviors - "Tailgate Tourism" is emerging, with nearly two-thirds of travelers interested in visiting college towns for game day experiences [10] - "Kidfluence" is shaping family travel, with 87% of parents allowing their children to help plan trips [10] - "Dead Zoning" reflects a trend towards digital detoxing, with 59% of travelers setting stronger boundaries with work during vacations [10]

Core Insights - KAYAK has launched AI Mode, a natural-language search feature that integrates ChatGPT to enhance user experience on its homepage, allowing travelers to plan trips by typing questions in plain language [1][2][3] - The introduction of AI Mode coincides with the peak holiday travel planning period, as KAYAK data indicates that mid-October to early November is optimal for securing holiday travel deals [2][3] KAYAK AI Mode Features - AI Mode enables users to receive contextual travel information without being restricted to preset fields, making the search process more intuitive [2][3] - The feature is currently available in English on desktop and mobile browsers in the US, with plans for additional languages and platforms, including voice entry, to be rolled out soon [4][6] Holiday Travel Insights - KAYAK reports that holiday flight prices are trending lower than the previous year, with a 10% increase in search demand compared to 2024, suggesting travelers should book soon [3][8] - Notable travel insights include November 24 being the cheapest day to fly for Thanksgiving at an average price of $415, and Christmas Eve offering the best deals for both domestic and international trips [3][8] Company Background - KAYAK is a leading travel search engine under Booking Holdings, handling billions of queries to assist users in finding flights, accommodations, rental cars, and vacation packages [5][9] - The KAYAK app supports seamless travel planning for both leisure and business travelers, with a dedicated solution for corporate travel [5][9]

Core Insights - KAYAK has launched AI Mode, a natural-language search feature that integrates ChatGPT to enhance user experience on its homepage, allowing travelers to plan trips by typing questions in plain language [1][2][3] - The introduction of AI Mode coincides with the peak holiday travel planning period, as KAYAK data indicates that mid-October to early November is optimal for securing holiday travel deals [2][3] KAYAK AI Mode Features - AI Mode enables users to receive contextual travel information without being restricted to preset entry fields, making the search process more intuitive [2][3] - The feature is currently available in English on desktop and mobile browsers in the US, with plans for additional languages and platforms, including voice entry, to be rolled out soon [4] Holiday Travel Insights - KAYAK reports that holiday flight prices are trending lower than the previous year, with a 10% increase in search demand compared to 2024, suggesting travelers should book soon [3][8] - Notable travel insights include November 24 being the cheapest day to fly for Thanksgiving at an average price of $415, and Christmas Eve offering the best deals for both domestic and international trips [3][8] User Engagement - KAYAK encourages users to explore holiday-themed prompts in AI Mode to discover actionable trip ideas, enhancing user engagement and travel planning [3][6] - Examples of travel-related queries that can be made using AI Mode include specific hotel searches, car rentals, and unique travel experiences [7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" [1][60]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant recovery in civil aviation passenger traffic, with major airports seeing a notable rebound in international passenger flow [4][5]. - There is a sustained enthusiasm for domestic travel during holidays, with inbound tourism continuing to thrive [4][15]. - The service sector shows a positive trend, with service consumption and production indices on the rise [30][31]. Summary by Sections Civil Aviation Recovery - Civil aviation passenger volume is recovering, with August 2025 domestic passenger volume reaching approximately 75.36 million, a 3.3% increase from 2024 and a 23.1% increase from 2019 [8]. - The average domestic economy class ticket price in August 2025 was 694.1 yuan, down 1.0% from 2024 and 8.5% from 2019 [8]. - International passenger volume in August 2025 was about 7.47 million, a 15.3% increase from 2024 and a 6.5% increase from 2019 [10]. Domestic Travel Enthusiasm - During the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, domestic travel reached 888 million trips, an increase of 1.23 million from 2024, with total spending of 809 billion yuan, up 1.08 billion yuan from 2024 [18]. - The average spending per trip during the holiday was 911 yuan, surpassing 2019 levels but slightly lower than 2023 [20]. - The average travel radius for tourists reached 212.66 kilometers, a 14.8% increase year-on-year, indicating a growing willingness to travel further [23]. Service Sector Performance - In August 2025, restaurant revenue grew by 2.1%, and retail sales increased by 3.6%, with the service production index rising by 5.6% [31]. - The service sector PMI remained above the threshold, recording 50.1% in September, indicating ongoing demand recovery [33]. - The total revenue of the service industry from January to July 2025 saw a cumulative year-on-year increase of 7.4% [31]. Key Company Tracking - Ctrip's net profit for 2025 is projected to be 17.71 billion yuan, with a potential for valuation improvement compared to international OTA leaders [54]. - The report indicates a strong trend towards long-distance and cross-border travel, with significant growth in bookings for destinations beyond traditional hotspots [53]. - The average occupancy rate for star-rated hotels in Shanghai reached 71.90% in August 2025, recovering to 105.74% of 2019 levels [47].

Core Insights - Booking Holdings Inc. is one of the largest online travel service providers globally, with a market cap of $166.3 billion and a portfolio that includes brands like Booking.com, Priceline, Agoda, and Kayak, serving travelers in over 220 countries and territories [1] Earnings Expectations - The company is expected to report its third-quarter earnings on October 28, with analysts predicting a profit of $95.56 per share, reflecting a 13.9% increase from $83.89 per share in the same quarter last year [2] - For the current fiscal year, analysts anticipate an EPS of $220.87, which is an 18.1% increase from $187.10 in fiscal 2024 [3] Stock Performance - Over the past 52 weeks, Booking Holdings' shares have increased by 21%, outperforming the S&P 500 Index's 16.3% gains and the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund's 18.6% returns [4] - The company's strong performance is attributed to a rebound in international travel and robust demand from high-income travelers, supported by ongoing technology investments and a diverse portfolio of leading travel brands [5] Analyst Ratings - The consensus opinion on BKNG stock is moderately bullish, with a "Moderate Buy" rating. Out of 38 analysts, 22 recommend a "Strong Buy," 2 suggest a "Moderate Buy," and 14 advise a "Hold" [6] - The average target price for BKNG is $6,081.41, indicating a potential upside of 17.1% from current price levels [6]