NOV Stock Up 33% in 6 Months: Should Investors Hold or Move On?

Core Insights - NOV Inc. is a leading provider of equipment and technology for energy companies, focusing on long-term returns and leveraging its proprietary technologies and manufacturing model [1] - The company has seen a significant rise in its stock price, with a 33.3% increase over the past six months, outperforming its sub-industry and the broader energy sector [3][7] - Despite recent stock performance, NOV faces challenges such as declining earnings per share and pressure on margins due to tariffs and market softness [2][11] Stock Performance - Over the last six months, NOV's shares increased by 33.3%, while the Mechanical and Equipment Oil and Gas sub-industry rose by 21.9% and the broader energy sector by 10.8% [3] - NOV outperformed USA Compression Partners, LP, which saw a decline of 4.5%, but lagged behind peers like Solaris Energy Infrastructure, Inc. and Oil States International, Inc., which surged by 91.5% and 48.5%, respectively [3] Positive Factors for NOV - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the global rebound in offshore development, with record orders and backlogs in subsea flexible pipe and FPSO systems [6] - NOV's long-term investment in R&D has led to innovative products that enhance safety and efficiency, providing a competitive advantage in high-barrier markets [8] - The Energy Equipment segment has shown consistent margin expansion, achieving a 14.4% Adjusted EBITDA margin, indicating effective pricing discipline and cost optimization [9] Strategic Positioning - NOV's expertise in subsea and gas-processing systems aligns with the increasing role of natural gas as a transition fuel, showcasing its adaptability to market changes [10] - The company is expanding its portfolio with new gas-related infrastructure projects, which supports its long-term relevance in the energy sector [10] Challenges Facing NOV - The company is experiencing near-term market softness, with tariffs expected to rise to $25 million in Q4 2025, which may impact margins and earnings momentum [11] - A sharp decline in net income by 68% year-over-year to $42 million and a contraction in operating margins to 4.9% highlight profitability challenges [12] - Management anticipates a 5-7% revenue decline in Q4 2025, indicating ongoing demand softness and uncertainty in near-term execution [13] Segment Performance - The Energy Products and Services segment saw a 3% revenue decline, with operating profit dropping to $38 million due to lower drilling activity and project delays [14] - The segment's Adjusted EBITDA margin fell to 13.9%, reflecting vulnerabilities tied to cyclical drilling markets and E&P spending slowdowns [14] Conclusion - Despite near-term challenges, NOV's long-term fundamentals remain strong, supported by its positioning in offshore markets and record backlogs [15] - The company's leadership in drilling automation and gas-focused infrastructure aligns with evolving global energy needs, suggesting potential for improved profitability as offshore activity accelerates in 2026-27 [15]