巴克莱银行常健，全球经济的趋势、逻辑以及风险点

Group 1 - The global economy is projected to grow at 3.2% in 2025 and slightly decrease to 3.1% in 2026, demonstrating resilience despite challenges such as tariff impacts [3][5] - Three main factors supporting this economic resilience include sustained consumer spending in the U.S., the driving force of the AI wave, and various economic stimulus policies implemented by countries [3][5][7] - U.S. consumer spending has been bolstered by companies absorbing some tariff costs, preventing a significant decline in global trade [3][5] Group 2 - Despite positive growth figures, underlying vulnerabilities and uncertainties persist, such as the anticipated decline in U.S. consumer spending due to reduced excess savings and the gradual impact of tariffs [9][11] - High global debt levels pose a significant risk, with governments, businesses, and households facing substantial debt burdens, leading to potential defaults in some European countries [11][13] - The dependency on stimulus policies may create a vicious cycle, increasing economic fragility as countries rely more on these measures to sustain growth [13][14] Group 3 - The AI wave has emerged as a significant variable influencing the macroeconomy, with high capital expenditures from major U.S. tech companies driving growth in related industries [16][18] - However, concerns about potential bubbles in AI investments are rising, with over half of investors believing there is a bubble, while power supply issues for AI infrastructure could lead to adjustments in tech stocks [18][20] - Long-term structural trends include a shift from globalization to regionalization, the potential return of "American exceptionalism," and the realization of Trump's policy intentions, which may reshape international trade dynamics [21][23][25]