多重因素协同助推 人民币短期“破7”概率大

Core Viewpoint - The recent acceleration of the Chinese yuan's appreciation against the US dollar has sparked market interest, with increasing discussions about whether the exchange rate can break the 7.0 mark. Group 1: Exchange Rate Trends - As of December 4, the yuan's central parity against the US dollar was adjusted up by 21 basis points to 7.0733, the highest level since October 14, 2024. The onshore yuan closed at 7.069, down 29 basis points from the previous trading day [1][2] - Since November, the yuan has entered a rapid appreciation phase, with significant increases of 506 basis points and 595 basis points against the US dollar for onshore and offshore rates, respectively, since November 20 [2] - The central parity has shown a narrow upward trend, with fluctuations observed in early December, indicating a potential for further appreciation [2][3] Group 2: Factors Supporting Appreciation - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December have been a direct driver of the yuan's appreciation, contributing to a decline in the US dollar index below 100 [5] - The approaching year-end has led to a surge in corporate foreign exchange settlement demand, which has further supported the yuan's exchange rate. In September, banks reported a settlement surplus of $51 billion, and this trend is expected to continue into the fourth quarter [6][7] - The overall export performance has been strong, with a 5.3% year-on-year increase in dollar-denominated exports in the first ten months of the year, contributing to concentrated settlement demand from enterprises [7] Group 3: Market Predictions - Experts predict a high probability of the yuan breaking the 7.0 mark in the short term, supported by seasonal settlement demand and a weaker dollar index due to anticipated Fed rate cuts [8] - Attention is drawn to the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on December 11, which may influence the dollar's performance and the yuan's central parity adjustments [8] - Despite the potential for short-term appreciation, uncertainties remain regarding the yuan's ability to maintain levels below 7.0 in the long term, influenced by various factors including US tariffs and global trade dynamics [9]