Why Is American Financial (AFG) Down 2.6% Since Last Earnings Report?

Core Viewpoint - American Financial Group (AFG) reported strong third-quarter earnings, beating estimates, but shares have underperformed the S&P 500 in the past month [1][2]. Financial Performance - AFG's Q3 2025 net operating earnings per share were $2.69, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 14.5% and reflecting a 16.4% year-over-year increase [2]. - Total revenues for the quarter were $2.2 billion, down 1.4% year over year, primarily due to lower P&C insurance net earned premiums, but still beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 8.8% [4]. - Net investment income rose 2.5% year over year to $205 million, surpassing estimates [4]. - Total costs and expenses decreased 3.6% year over year to $2.1 billion, attributed to lower losses and expenses [4]. Segment Analysis - The Specialty P&C Insurance segment reported net written premiums of $2.2 billion, a decline of 4% year over year, with average renewal pricing up approximately 5% [5]. - The Property & Transportation Group saw net written premiums decrease by 9% year over year to $1 billion [5]. - The Specialty Casualty Group's net written premiums decreased by 0.3% year over year to $914 million, while the Specialty Financial segment's premiums increased by 1% to $287 million [6]. Underwriting Profit - Underwriting profit for the Specialty P&C Insurance segment increased by 19% year over year to $139 million, with pre-tax core operating earnings rising 12.7% to $328 million [7]. - Catastrophe losses were significantly reduced to $23 million from $90 million year over year, contributing to improved underwriting profit [8]. Financial Position - AFG ended Q3 with total cash and investments of $16.7 billion, a 5.7% increase from the end of 2024 [12]. - Long-term debt rose 23.4% to $1.8 billion, while book value per share increased by 2.8% to $57.59 [12]. Capital Management - AFG declared a special cash dividend of $2.00 per share, totaling approximately $167 million, in addition to its regular quarterly dividend of 88 cents per share [13]. Market Outlook - Following the earnings release, there has been an upward trend in consensus estimates, with a 5.2% increase noted [14]. - AFG holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating expectations for an in-line return in the coming months [16]. Industry Comparison - AFG operates within the Zacks Insurance - Property and Casualty industry, where Berkshire Hathaway B has reported a 3% gain over the past month, with its own revenues showing a year-over-year increase of 2.1% [17].