Why Is Harley-Davidson (HOG) Down 3.9% Since Last Earnings Report?

Core Viewpoint - Harley-Davidson reported strong third-quarter earnings, significantly exceeding estimates, but faces challenges in retail sales and future guidance due to tariff uncertainties [2][8]. Financial Performance - Adjusted earnings for Q3 2025 were $3.10 per share, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.38, and up from 91 cents per share in the same quarter last year [2]. - Consolidated revenues reached $1.34 billion, reflecting a 17% increase year-over-year [2]. - Revenues from the Motorcycle and Related Products segment rose 23% to $1.07 billion, driven by a 33% increase in motorcycle shipments to 36,500 units [3]. Segmental Highlights - Retail motorcycle units sold globally were 34,000, down 6% year-over-year but above expectations [4]. - Revenues from motorcycle sales were $822 million, up 34% year-over-year [3]. - Parts and accessories revenues decreased 4% to $167 million, while apparel revenues rose 1% to $56 million [5]. Financial Services - Harley-Davidson Financial Services generated revenues of $261 million, a 3% decline year-over-year, but operating income surged 472% to $439 million [5]. LiveWire Performance - LiveWire shipments totaled 184 units, an 86% increase year-over-year, but revenues of $6 million fell short of estimates [6]. - The operating loss for LiveWire narrowed from $26 million to $18 million, slightly better than projections [6]. Financial Position - As of September 30, 2025, cash and cash equivalents stood at $1.78 billion, with long-term debt reduced to $3.15 million [7]. - Selling, general, and administrative expenses increased to $229 million from $208.7 million year-over-year [7]. Guidance and Outlook - The company has not provided a financial outlook for 2025 due to tariff uncertainties but has updated LiveWire guidance, expecting an operating loss of $72-$77 million [8]. - Estimates for the stock have been trending downward, with a significant shift of -657.58% in consensus estimates [9]. Industry Comparison - Harley-Davidson operates within the Zacks Automotive - Domestic industry, where General Motors reported revenues of $48.59 billion, a slight decline of 0.3% year-over-year [12]. - General Motors is projected to post earnings of $2.21 per share for the current quarter, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 15.1% [13].