商品交易巨头火上浇油：Mercuria被爆曾计划从LME仓库提取超4万吨铜

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in copper prices is driven by concerns over global supply shortages, exacerbated by a significant withdrawal of copper from LME warehouses by Mercuria, a major commodity trader [1][2][5]. Group 1: Copper Price Dynamics - Copper prices have increased by over 30% this year, with recent spikes attributed to supply disruptions in major copper-producing countries like Indonesia and Chile, alongside rising demand [2][4]. - On December 2, Mercuria announced plans to withdraw over 40,000 tons of copper from LME warehouses, valued at approximately $460 million, which is expected to increase the premium of spot copper contracts over three-month futures [1][5]. - The LME's Asian warehouse saw a record cancellation of warehouse receipts, reaching 50,725 tons, the highest since 2013, indicating heightened demand for physical copper [1][2]. Group 2: Supply Chain and Market Reactions - Supply disruptions from mines in Chile and Indonesia have tightened the copper supply, with Ivanhoe Mines reducing production forecasts and Glencore lowering its output targets [3][4]. - The U.S. tariff policies have led to a significant increase in copper imports, creating a situation where global inventories are at risk of depletion [4][5]. - Analysts predict that the ongoing tariff threats will continue to support copper prices, with some forecasting that the market may face severe shortages in the first quarter of next year [5][6]. Group 3: Divergent Market Perspectives - While some analysts, like those from Goldman Sachs, express caution regarding the sustainability of the recent price surge, predicting a potential oversupply of copper, others, including Mercuria, maintain a bullish outlook, suggesting that current high prices may soon appear low [6][5]. - Goldman Sachs has raised its price forecasts for the first half of next year, citing U.S. tariff impacts, but anticipates that prices will stabilize between $10,000 and $11,000 per ton by 2026 [6].