Ge Long Hui·2025-12-04 21:50Core Insights - Meituan is a leading local commerce platform in China, focusing on food delivery, flash purchase, and in-store travel services, while actively exploring new business opportunities and expanding into overseas markets [1][2] - The macroeconomic environment is a significant beta factor, with the service industry showing higher growth rates compared to retail, indicating greater growth potential and resilience for the platform [1] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, core local commerce revenue was 67.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.8%, primarily due to increased subsidies leading to a significant decline in delivery service revenue [2] - The operating loss for core local commerce in Q3 2025 was 14.1 billion yuan, with expectations of continued losses in Q4 2025, although the loss margin is anticipated to narrow sequentially [2] Competitive Landscape - Meituan's core advantage lies in its long-term business barriers rather than short-term subsidy investments, with significant operational efficiency in its food delivery business [2] - As industry competition becomes more rational, Meituan is expected to enter a profit recovery phase following a reduction in subsidies [2] International Expansion - The company is accelerating its overseas market expansion, achieving positive progress in regions like Hong Kong and Saudi Arabia, with Keeta's Hong Kong operations becoming profitable in October 2025 [2] - The international strategy, although initiated later, is expected to significantly broaden the company's Total Addressable Market (TAM) and create structural flexibility for future profit growth [2] Investment Outlook - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 366.2 billion, 417.4 billion, and 468.9 billion yuan, respectively, with adjusted net profits of -17.4 billion, 17.1 billion, and 40.3 billion yuan [2] - Meituan is positioned as a leading player in local commerce with solid long-term barriers, and despite short-term competitive disturbances, the long-term value remains unchanged, leading to an "overweight" rating [2]