Ge Long Hui·2025-12-04 21:50Overall Performance - In FY2025 Q3, the company reported revenue of 95.49 billion yuan, which was below Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 97.47 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 2% [1] - The adjusted net loss was 16.01 billion yuan, exceeding Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 13.96 billion yuan [1] Core Local Business - Core local business revenue was 67.4 billion yuan, compared to the consensus estimate of 69.2 billion yuan, with an operating loss of 14.1 billion yuan, worse than the expected loss of 12.6 billion yuan, resulting in an operating margin of -20.9% [1] - New business revenue was 28 billion yuan, slightly below the consensus estimate of 28.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year operating loss increase of 24.5% to 1.3 billion yuan, better than the expected loss of 2.3 billion yuan [1] Food Delivery and Flash Purchase - Within the core local business, the in-store travel and dining segment contributed approximately 5.1 billion yuan in operating profit, while the food delivery and flash purchase segments incurred an operating loss of about 19.1 billion yuan [2] - The average order value (AOV) for high-priced orders (above 15 yuan) accounted for two-thirds of the gross transaction value (GTV), with orders above 30 yuan making up 70% [2] - The company anticipates that competition will focus on operational efficiency and service quality, with a potential improvement in food delivery unit economics as subsidy investments are expected to narrow [2] In-store Travel and Dining - The in-store travel and dining segment is expected to see revenue growth slowdown due to overall market deceleration and competitive pressures, with Q3 revenue contribution estimated at 18 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12% [2] - Operating profit for this segment was 5.1 billion yuan, with an operating margin of 28%, showing a decline both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter [2] New Business Developments - The company launched Keeta in Brazil at the end of October, with plans to enter São Paulo by December 1 [3] - The Brazilian food delivery market is competitive, but the company expects manageable investment levels, projecting that losses for the new business in 2026 will not exceed those in 2025 [3] - Keeta aims to replicate its success from Hong Kong and the Middle East, potentially contributing 100 billion USD in GTV, which would represent about 70% of the company's domestic food delivery scale in 2024 [3] Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company faces peak competitive pressure in food delivery this quarter, but with a narrowing of subsidies, there is potential for improvement in user engagement and brand loyalty [3] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 364.067 billion yuan, 408.478 billion yuan, and 455.156 billion yuan, with adjusted net profits of -11.525 billion yuan, 21.534 billion yuan, and 44.567 billion yuan respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [3]