日本管理通胀面临多重掣肘

Economic Growth Challenges - Japan's GDP contracted by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter and 1.8% year-on-year in Q3, marking a return to negative growth since Q1 2024 [1] - The Japanese government has revised its economic growth forecast for FY2025 down from 1.2% to 0.7% due to the ongoing negative impact of U.S. tariffs [1] Domestic Demand Weakness - Personal consumption, which accounts for over half of Japan's economy, increased by only 0.1% in Q3, a significant slowdown from 0.4% in Q2, contributing negatively to economic growth by -0.2 percentage points [1] High Government Debt - Japan's government debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to reach 229.6% by 2025, the highest among developed economies, due to persistent expansionary fiscal policies [2] - The reliance on the Bank of Japan's ultra-loose monetary policy to keep borrowing costs low has created a substantial debt burden, which will worsen if interest rates rise [2] Monetary Policy Outlook - The Bank of Japan is expected to make a decision on interest rates in December, with market expectations for a potential rate hike [1] - The outcome of the 2026 spring labor negotiations will be crucial for the Bank of Japan's policy decisions, as delayed responses to economic conditions could lead to uncontrollable inflation [2]