金融珍珠港，俄打响第一枪，中国减持美债，人民币或重回6时代？

Group 1 - Russia is set to issue its first-ever RMB-denominated sovereign bonds with a target coupon rate of 6.25%-6.5% for a 3.2-year bond and a maximum rate of 7.5% for a 7.5-year bond [1][7] - The issuance of RMB bonds is a strategic move for Russia to access financing amid Western sanctions that limit its ability to obtain USD and EUR financing, while also utilizing its substantial RMB assets [6][21] - The trend of "de-dollarization" is gaining momentum, as evidenced by China's reduction of its US Treasury holdings to $765.4 billion, the lowest level since 2009, and a continuous decline over the past 18 months [1][9] Group 2 - Moody's has downgraded the US sovereign rating to Aa1, reflecting market concerns over US debt credit risk, while China's reduction of US Treasury holdings is seen as a proactive measure against potential debt crises [5][21] - The RMB has become the second most used currency in global trade financing, accounting for 8.5% of all transactions, indicating a structural shift in the global financial landscape [9][21] - China's gold reserves have increased to $243.6 billion, with a rising proportion in its foreign exchange reserves, highlighting a strategic shift towards a more resilient reserve system amid geopolitical risks [11][13] Group 3 - The RMB's appreciation against the USD has been driven by both internal economic factors and external environment changes, with the currency breaking the 7.07 mark, the highest in over a year [15][17] - International institutions like Goldman Sachs predict that the RMB exchange rate may approach 6.85 in the next 12 months, supported by positive economic indicators such as a 5.3% year-on-year GDP growth in Q3 [19][21] - The global financial system is undergoing a reconstruction of trust, as evidenced by Russia's bond issuance, China's asset reallocation, and IMF warnings about asset overvaluation risks [21][22]