黄金，还能涨30%？

Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the S&P 500 rising by 0.11% to 6857.12 points, the Nasdaq increasing by 0.22% to 23505.14 points, and the Dow Jones decreasing by 0.07% to 47850.94 points [1][3][5] - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut have intensified, with the probability of a cut reaching 87% according to the CME FedWatch Tool [1][5] Gold Market Outlook - The World Gold Council (WGC) reported that gold prices have surged approximately 60% this year, driven by geopolitical and economic uncertainties, a weakening dollar, and strong price momentum [7][9] - For 2026, the WGC outlined several scenarios for gold price movements: - In a "mild decline" scenario, lower interest rates, a weaker dollar, and stronger risk aversion could support gold prices, potentially increasing by 5% to 15% [8] - In a "vicious cycle" scenario, heightened geopolitical tensions and declining market confidence could lead to a significant increase in gold prices, potentially rising by 15% to 30% [8][10] - In a "return of re-inflation" scenario, if U.S. economic growth exceeds expectations, rising interest rates and a stronger dollar could pressure gold prices, leading to a potential decline of 5% to 20% [10] Investment Demand - Investment demand, particularly through gold ETFs, is expected to remain a key driver, offsetting weaker demand from jewelry and technology sectors. This year, global gold ETFs attracted $77 billion in inflows, with over 700 tons added [9] - Central bank demand is also highlighted as a significant factor influencing gold prices, with strong purchasing activity expected to continue [10]