一步之遥：股份制银行集体逼近全球系统重要性银行门槛

Core Viewpoint - The Financial Stability Board (FSB) has released the 2025 Global Systemically Important Banks (G-SIBs) list, which includes 29 banks, with five Chinese state-owned banks maintaining their status. Notably, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) has moved from Group 2 to Group 3 for the first time [1][5]. Group 1: G-SIBs List and Rankings - The 2025 G-SIBs list remains consistent with 2024, but there are changes in group classifications. The third group has increased from 2 to 4 banks, including ICBC, Bank of America, HSBC, and Citigroup [5][11]. - In the "Bucket 0" category, which does not require additional capital, China Merchants Bank has improved its ranking from 34th to 30th, closely approaching the G-SIBs threshold [1][6]. - Other Chinese banks, such as Industrial Bank and CITIC Bank, are also nearing the G-SIBs threshold, indicating a shift in global financial stability focus [1][9]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Rankings - The rise in rankings for Chinese banks is attributed to improvements in interconnectedness and complexity metrics rather than size, with China Merchants Bank's score increasing significantly due to these factors [3][8]. - For instance, China Merchants Bank's interconnectedness score rose by 31 points, and complexity increased by 60 points, while size only increased by 10 points [7][8]. Group 3: Implications of G-SIBs Inclusion - Inclusion in the G-SIBs list signifies greater regulatory scrutiny and higher capital requirements, which could compress the return on equity (ROE) for these banks [3][11]. - The additional capital requirements for G-SIBs range from 1% to 3.5% depending on the group, which could impact the capital strategies of the banks [11][12]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Strategic Considerations - There is a potential for China Merchants Bank to be included in the G-SIBs list within the next three years if current trends continue [2][14]. - Banks are advised to enhance their capital buffers and risk management frameworks to prepare for the implications of G-SIBs status, focusing on diversified capital tools and optimizing asset structures [14][15]. - The Basel Committee's adjustments to the G-SIBs recognition framework may introduce further uncertainties for banks nearing the threshold [15][16].