被楼市反噬，房价破万！这个省会，没有退路了！

Core Viewpoint - The economic development of Kunming has been stagnating for five years, failing to meet its ambitious targets set for 2025, including a GDP of over 1 trillion yuan and a permanent population of around 10 million [1][4][50]. Economic Performance - In 2024, Kunming's GDP was 827.52 billion yuan, falling short of the 1 trillion yuan target by over 170 billion yuan [1]. - The actual GDP growth rate for the first three quarters of 2025 was 4.4%, ranking Kunming among the bottom seven of 36 major cities in terms of growth [5][8]. - The economic primacy of Kunming was recorded at 26.2%, which is 3.8 percentage points below the target of 30% [1]. Population Trends - The permanent population of Kunming in 2024 was approximately 8.69 million, which is still 170,000 short of the 10 million target [1]. - The net population inflow in 2024 was only 4,600, significantly lower than previous years [11]. Real Estate Market Impact - Kunming's real estate sector has seen a drastic decline, with land sales dropping from 915.7 billion yuan in 2019 to just 46.28 billion yuan in 2023, marking an 86.5% decrease [19]. - The sales volume of commercial housing plummeted by 66.6% from its peak in 2019, with sales amounting to 639.42 million square meters in 2024 [21]. - The average price of commercial housing fell to 8,818 yuan per square meter in 2024, a 28.06% decrease from its peak [24]. Industrial Development - Kunming's industrial output value increased from 131.92 billion yuan in 2019 to 183.76 billion yuan in 2024, but this is still significantly lower than industrial powerhouses like Shenzhen [28]. - The city has only one industry with revenues exceeding 100 billion yuan, which is the non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling industry [33]. Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment in Kunming has been heavily skewed towards real estate, with over 60% of investments directed to this sector in 2021, leading to a neglect of industrial development [17][18]. - The city aims to increase industrial investment to account for over 20% of total investment by 2025, but recent data shows a decline in industrial investment [55][57]. Geographic Limitations - Kunming's geographical features, characterized by high altitudes and limited flat land, pose challenges for industrial development, as most of the population and economic activity is concentrated in a small area [58][60].