Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-12-05 01:26Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Alibaba's traditional e-commerce has a strong advantage and is expected to maintain market share stability, while its cloud business has significant growth potential driven by AI [1] - The adjusted net profit estimates for Alibaba for FY2026-2028 are projected to be 107.9 billion, 149.4 billion, and 175.8 billion RMB, with corresponding adjusted PE ratios of 24.8, 17.9, and 15.2 times [1] - The target market capitalization is set at 3.36 trillion RMB, with a target price of 192.48 HKD, and the report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating [1] Group 2 - Alibaba's entry into instant retail through food delivery has led to a recovery in user activity, with DAU increasing by 3% to 19% from May to October [2] - The order volume peaked at 120 million in July, with market share in the mainstream food delivery sector rising from 29.4% in Q4 2024 to 42.8% in Q3 2025 [2] - The number of delivery personnel increased by over 240% from April to August 2025, indicating improved fulfillment capabilities [2] Group 3 - Alibaba Cloud is recognized as a "full-stack AI company," pursuing top-tier self-research capabilities in AI chips, cloud computing platforms, and foundational large model capabilities [3] - The cloud service operates in 29 public cloud regions and 92 availability zones globally, with over 3,200 edge nodes [3] - Alibaba's annual capital expenditure exceeds 100 billion RMB, with significant advancements in its Qwen series large models and leading technology in its PPU chip [3]