中金：国内复用火箭有望逐步成熟 可复用开启低成本航天时代

Group 1 - The global commercial space industry is experiencing significant growth, driving demand for rocket launches, with domestic reusable rockets expected to mature gradually [1][2] - The number of global space launches is projected to increase from 112 in 2020 to 263 in 2024, with commercial rockets becoming the main force in global launches [2] - Domestic commercial rocket companies have rapidly developed since 2014, with multiple rocket types achieving consecutive successful launches, and reusable models like Zhuque-3 and Tianlong-3 expected to have intensive maiden flights in 2025-2026 [2] Group 2 - The cost of launching is estimated to account for 30%-40% of the total cost of satellite constellation construction, with the commercial model Falcon 9's unit launch cost at only $3,000 per kilogram, significantly lower than traditional launch vehicles [2] - The turnaround time for commercial rockets like Falcon 9 can be reduced to under 100 days, compared to the 20-month cycle of traditional rockets, making them more suitable for dense launch schedules [2] - Scalable and reusable commercial rockets are anticipated to provide ample low-cost capacity support for space infrastructure development, further solidifying the foundation of the commercial space industry [2][3] Group 3 - Reusability is a key factor in reducing costs for commercial rockets, with the airframe and propulsion system accounting for 60%-80% of rocket costs; under ten reuse scenarios, Falcon 9's launch cost could drop to $1,270 per kilogram [3] - New technologies are further driving down manufacturing costs, with many large-thrust commercial rockets adopting variable thrust liquid engines, and liquid oxygen-methane expected to become a mainstream fuel due to its low cost and reduced carbon buildup [3] - The airframe structure is shifting from aluminum alloy to stainless steel, and complex structures are being produced using 3D printing techniques to achieve weight reduction and cost savings [3]