金荣中国：美初请数据好于市场预期，金价冲高回落加剧震荡

Market Overview - International gold prices experienced fluctuations, closing at $4207.46 per ounce after reaching a high of $4225.12 and a low of $4174.95 [1] Employment Data - In November, the number of layoffs announced by U.S. companies dropped significantly by 53.4% to 71,321 from 153,074 in the previous month [3] - Initial jobless claims for the week were recorded at 191,000, the lowest since September 24, 2022, and below the market expectation of 220,000 [3] - The four-week moving average for jobless claims decreased to 214,700, influenced by the Thanksgiving holiday [3] - The number of individuals continuing to receive unemployment benefits fell to 1.939 million, the lowest level since early October [3] - Revelio Labs reported an expected net decrease of approximately 9,000 jobs in November, with layoffs concentrated in retail, leisure, and manufacturing sectors [3] Federal Reserve Insights - A Reuters survey indicated that 82% of economists expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December to support a cooling labor market [4] - The survey reflects a strong consensus among economists, contrasting with the growing divergence among policymakers regarding the need for further easing in the global economy [4] - The median forecast suggests two additional rate cuts, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 3.00-3.25% by year-end [4] - The hiring intentions for the year have decreased by 35% compared to the same period in 2024, marking the lowest level of recruitment plans since 2010 [4] Market Expectations - According to CME's FedWatch tool, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December is 87%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 13% [5] - The likelihood of a cumulative 25 basis point cut by January is 64.1%, with a 27% chance of a total cut of 50 basis points [5] Technical Analysis - Gold prices are expected to maintain a short-term oscillating trend, with a focus on trading strategies that involve both long and short positions [8][10]