白银会重演1980与2011年的暴跌行情吗？这次真的不一样

Core Viewpoint - The silver market has experienced significant price volatility this year, nearly doubling in value, but analysts express concerns about potential disappointments based on historical patterns of rapid price increases followed by sharp declines [1][4]. Historical Context - In 1980 and 2011, silver prices surged above $48 per ounce before quickly plummeting [3]. - In 1980, silver rose from $10 to $48 in four months, only to fall back to $10 two months later. Similarly, in 2011, silver reached $48 again but dropped to $26 within months [4]. Current Market Analysis - Current silver price behavior is different from past instances, with prices stabilizing around $48 and showing resilience [5]. - Analyst Craig Hemke believes that the current situation resembles gold's price movements in recent years rather than the historical patterns of silver in 1980 and 2011 [2][5]. Technical Indicators - Hemke suggests that the formation of a double top pattern is not confirmed unless silver drops below $46, indicating that current price levels represent a trading range rather than a definitive bearish signal [5]. - The price structure of silver is expected to mirror gold's breakout patterns observed in late 2023 and early 2024, with potential for further consolidation before a significant upward movement [6][7]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The silver market is facing a structural supply shortage, with demand expected to exceed supply by 9.5 million ounces this year, leading to a cumulative shortfall of 820 million ounces over five years [8]. - The ongoing demand-supply imbalance has persisted for years, necessitating the use of existing above-ground inventories, which may drive prices higher [8]. Future Outlook - Hemke anticipates that a breakthrough in silver prices could occur in early 2026, potentially pushing prices to new historical highs, with projections suggesting a rise to $100 per ounce by mid-2027 if trends continue [7][8]. - The shift in monetary policy by the Federal Reserve towards easing and lower interest rates may also support silver prices in the coming year [9].