商品交易巨头火上浇油：Mercuria被爆计划从LME亚洲仓提取超4万吨铜

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in copper prices is driven by concerns over global supply shortages, exacerbated by Mercuria's announcement to withdraw over 40,000 tons of copper from LME warehouses, potentially pushing prices to historical highs [1][3]. Group 1: Copper Price Dynamics - Copper prices have increased by over 30% this year, with a notable spike attributed to supply disruptions in major producing countries like Indonesia and Chile, alongside rising demand [2][4]. - On December 2, Mercuria canceled or marked over 40,000 tons of copper for delivery from LME warehouses in South Korea and Taiwan, indicating a growing demand for physical copper [1][3]. - The LME copper trading price rebounded significantly, reaching a record high of $11,540 per ton, marking the third consecutive day of record closing prices [1]. Group 2: Supply Chain and Market Reactions - The surge in copper prices is linked to the uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies, which have led to increased imports and a potential global supply shortage in the first quarter of the following year [3][4]. - The cancellation of warehouse receipts at LME reached a record high of 50,725 tons, reflecting the heightened demand and supply constraints [1][2]. - Analysts predict that the ongoing tariff threats will continue to drive prices upward, with a significant impact on global inventory levels [4][6]. Group 3: Diverging Market Perspectives - While some analysts, like those from Goldman Sachs, express caution regarding the sustainability of high copper prices, citing sufficient global supply to meet demand, others, like Mercuria, maintain a bullish outlook [6][7]. - Goldman Sachs forecasts a surplus of approximately 500,000 tons in copper supply this year, suggesting that the recent price increases are largely based on future market expectations rather than current fundamentals [6]. - Mercuria's leadership emphasizes that current high prices may soon appear low if trends continue, predicting a significant increase in U.S. copper imports by early 2026 [7].