降息预期点燃有色金属情绪，天弘中证工业有色金属主题指数(A类：017192；C类：017193)标的指数盘中涨超2%，冲击3连涨

Group 1 - The non-ferrous metal sector is showing strong performance, with the Zhongzheng Industrial Non-Ferrous Metal Theme Index rising by 1.40% and reaching a peak increase of over 2%, indicating a potential three-day rally [1] - Key stocks leading the gains include Nanshan Aluminum, Shenhuo Co., Electric Power Investment Energy, and China Aluminum [1] - The recent drop in the US ADP employment figures by 32,000, the largest decline since March 2023, has increased the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, which is expected to support the prices of industrial metals like copper and aluminum [1] Group 2 - The Chilean state-owned copper company has set a historical high for copper premiums offered to US customers, contributing to the rapid increase in LME copper prices [1] - Analysts suggest that the key factors to monitor in the short term include the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and domestic downstream operating data, with critical support and resistance levels for copper and zinc prices identified [1] - In the medium to long term, three main variables are expected to influence the industry: the Federal Reserve's policy direction and dollar trends, the impact of domestic growth stabilization policies on industrial demand, and disruptions in overseas mining supply alongside domestic capacity regulation [1] Group 3 - The China Copper Raw Material Joint Negotiation Group (CSPT) has reached a consensus to reduce copper concentrate production capacity by over 10% for 2026, which may tighten the supply-demand balance for copper [2] - The potential reduction in production from smelting companies could lead to tighter supplies of refined copper in 2026, further driving up copper prices [2] - The non-ferrous metal industry remains relatively stable, with slight increases in copper and aluminum prices, while high inventory levels indicate strong resilience [2]