5万吨仓单一日注销！摩根大通：铜价进入“波动性更强，更急看涨的中场阶段”

Core Viewpoint - A record cancellation of copper inventory at the London Metal Exchange (LME) is pushing the copper market into a more volatile bullish phase, marking the end of the initial bull market phase and indicating a transition to a more pronounced upward trend [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - A significant cancellation of 50,000 tons of copper warrants at LME is the largest single-day operation since 2013, reflecting increasing structural tensions in the global copper market [1]. - The cancellation has led to a 5% increase in LME three-month copper prices over the past week, with prices surpassing $11,500 per ton, reaching a new high [1]. - The U.S. market's strong demand for refined copper is causing supply shortages in other regions, prompting them to seek resources from LME [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Imbalance - The bullish outlook is primarily driven by severe mismatches in global inventory and the continuous attraction of refined copper to the U.S. market [2]. - The price difference between the U.S. Commodity Exchange (COMEX) and LME remains significant, with COMEX copper contracts for March 2026 priced approximately $390 per ton higher than LME contracts [2]. Group 3: Inventory and Pricing Mechanism - The high annual contract premiums are forcing consumers outside the U.S. to shift from locking in high-priced long-term contracts to seeking supplies in the spot market [4]. - The LME's on-warrant inventory has dropped below the critical psychological level of 100,000 tons, which historically triggers a "backwardation" state where spot prices exceed futures prices [5][7]. - Historical data shows that when LME on-warrant inventory is below 100,000 tons, the probability of price increases rises to 57%, with a median weekly increase of 0.64% [8]. Group 4: Future Market Outlook - The current market dynamics suggest a "bull end game," where the tightening of refined copper markets outside the U.S. leads to continuous consumption of LME inventory [11]. - As LME prices rise, they may incentivize copper to flow from the U.S. market back to LME or to regions with higher demand for spot supplies, aiming for global market rebalancing [11]. - Despite a clear long-term bullish logic, the market may experience short-term fluctuations as not all major consumer markets have fully adapted to rising prices [12].