道明证券发布2026年大宗商品展望：铂金和钯金将引领贵金属上涨！

Group 1: Gold Market Outlook - The report from TD Securities predicts that gold prices are unlikely to crash in 2026, with potential to reach a historical high of $4,400 per ounce in the first half of the year, up from the current stable price of over $4,200 per ounce [2] - Factors supporting this bullish outlook include increased likelihood of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, concerns over the Fed's independence, and rising U.S. debt levels, which may lead to a depreciation of the dollar and increased demand for gold from central banks [2] - The new long-term price range for gold is expected to be between $3,500 and $4,400 per ounce, with risks primarily stemming from rising prices of U.S. risk assets and a potential shift in market sentiment regarding U.S. employment and Fed rate cuts [2] Group 2: Silver Market Risks - TD Securities warns of risks in the silver market, noting that while there was a tight supply earlier this year, a large-scale supply of silver is expected to replenish in 2026, with over 212 million ounces available in London [3] - The report highlights a significant decline in spot silver trading volume, which has dropped by 65% from its peak in October, indicating a shift away from speculative demand [3][4] - Concerns about potential U.S. tariffs on silver are deemed less significant, as the trend of stockpiling silver has ended, although challenges such as rising inventory and weakening industrial demand remain [3] Group 3: Platinum Group Metals - Contrary to mainstream views, TD Securities anticipates strong price increases for platinum and palladium in 2026, driven by robust automotive demand in North America [5] - A slight change in vehicle ownership rates could lead to significant fluctuations in demand for platinum and palladium, with potential demand variations of 420,000 ounces for platinum and 1.7 million ounces for palladium based on a 2% change in ownership rates [5][6] - The expected supply surplus from scrap metal is projected to be delayed until 2027, which will continue to widen the supply gap for platinum group metals [6]