日本大概率在12月决定加息，长期债券雪崩

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's Governor Kazuo Ueda delivered a hawkish speech on December 4, leading to a significant rise in Japan's long-term bond yields, with the 10-year government bond yield reaching 1.939%, the highest since 2007, and the 30-year bond yield hitting a historic high of 3.445% [2] Group 1: Interest Rate Policy - Ueda's remarks on December 1 indicated a strong signal regarding the upcoming monetary policy meeting on December 18-19, suggesting a potential interest rate hike [2] - He provided multiple arguments for raising interest rates, stating that the belief in achieving economic outlook is strengthening and conditions for policy normalization are improving [2] - Ueda noted that despite recent negative GDP growth, it is a "temporary" technical adjustment, and the economy is still in a mild recovery [2] Group 2: Wage Growth and Inflation - Ueda highlighted that the preliminary momentum for wage negotiations in spring is improving, indicating a potential shift towards persistent inflation trends [2] - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Japan rose by 3.0% year-on-year in October, marking 50 consecutive months of increase, with significant price hikes in various food items [3] - The acceleration of inflation in Japan is attributed to the end of nearly three decades of deflation, rapid economic growth, and a booming job market [3] Group 3: Supply Chain Issues - There is a supply-side gap in Japan, particularly in rice prices, which significantly impact inflation statistics [4] - Factors such as extreme heat leading to poor rice harvests are contributing to rising prices, making rice a key driver of current inflation [4] - The aging population of agricultural workers and abandoned farmland complicate the ability to quickly address supply shortages [4] Group 4: Monetary Policy Challenges - The Bank of Japan has historically been cautious about tightening monetary policy, fearing it could disrupt the fragile inflation and economic growth [4] - Ueda's previous adherence to the "temporary inflation" narrative has delayed the normalization process [4] - The current stance of the Bank of Japan is to raise interest rates once a solid economic growth foundation is confirmed, balancing the need for demand suppression with economic stability [4]