全球主要经济体或在明年结束降息周期，美国宽松空间更大

Group 1 - The OECD report indicates that major global economies have limited room for further interest rate cuts, with expectations to end the easing cycle by the end of 2026 [1] - The Federal Reserve is projected to lower the federal funds rate two more times by the end of 2026, bringing it down to a range of 3.25%-3.50% [1] - The Bank of England may halt rate cuts in the first half of next year, while the Eurozone and Canada are not expected to cut rates next year [1] Group 2 - David Chao from Invesco suggests that most central banks will adopt a more accommodative stance in 2023 and 2024, with significant policy rate reductions expected [1] - The European Central Bank (ECB) is unlikely to continue cutting rates next year, as its deposit facility rate is already at 2.0%, below the neutral level of 3.0% [3] - The Swiss National Bank's policy rate has reached 0%, indicating that some European central banks are nearing the end of their easing cycles [3] Group 3 - The Bank of Japan is expected to normalize its extremely accommodative monetary policy, with two rate hikes anticipated by the end of 2026 [4] - The People's Bank of China has already initiated its easing cycle earlier than other central banks, suggesting limited room for further cuts [4] - Emerging markets may have more room for rate cuts as inflation decreases, contrasting with the situation in developed economies [4] Group 4 - The ECB has initiated its current easing cycle in June 2024, with eight rate cuts bringing its deposit facility rate down to 2.00% [4] - Recent data shows that the Eurozone's harmonized consumer price index rose by 2.2% year-on-year in November, indicating inflation remains above the ECB's target [5] - The Eurozone's service sector PMI reached 53.6 in November, reflecting economic resilience despite manufacturing sector weaknesses [5] Group 5 - Analysts are more aggressive than the OECD regarding the Fed's rate cuts, with expectations of 3-4 cuts in 2024, each by 25 basis points [6] - The potential for a more significant rate cut by the Fed is influenced by the core CPI remaining above 3% [6] - The upcoming selection of a new Fed chair could lead to a more dovish monetary policy, with Kevin Hassett being a potential candidate who favors aggressive rate cuts [7]