7年翻倍！美国未偿国债规模首次突破30万亿美元！美债会违约吗？

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the U.S. national debt has surpassed $30 trillion for the first time in history, which translates to nearly $90,000 per American citizen [1][3] - The U.S. Treasury reported that the interest payments on the debt are approaching $2.7 billion daily, with interest expenditures projected to exceed defense spending by the fiscal year 2025, becoming the third-largest item in the federal budget [3][8] - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) had originally predicted that the debt would reach $30 trillion by 2030, but it was reached five years earlier than expected [3][5] Group 2 - The primary reason for the high debt level is excessive spending, with the federal budget deficit for fiscal year 2025 projected at $1.775 trillion, while expenditures are expected to surpass $7 trillion [7][8] - The U.S. government is caught in a vicious cycle of borrowing, where it takes only three months to accumulate an additional $1 trillion in debt, relying on new debt issuance to pay off old debt [9] - Internal policy conflicts are undermining the ability to manage debt, with significant disagreements between the Federal Reserve and the White House, and Congress struggling to reach consensus on spending cuts [10] Group 3 - The likelihood of a short-term default on U.S. debt is very low, but long-term risks are increasing [12] - The U.S. has two main strategies to manage its debt: leveraging the dollar's dominance to print money and pressuring allies to buy more debt, although these methods may lead to long-term consequences [12] - The founder of Bridgewater Associates, Ray Dalio, has warned that the U.S. is nearing the end of its long-term debt cycle, and the rising interest costs exceeding defense spending is a dangerous signal [12][14]