“8连涨”后白银回调，这一次“白银牛市”会像1980年、2011年那样“新高后崩盘”吗？

Core Viewpoint - Silver has experienced a significant price increase this year, nearing a doubling in value, but analysts believe the current market dynamics differ fundamentally from past collapses in 1980 and 2011, suggesting a more stable supply-demand environment and a technical pattern akin to recent gold price movements [3][10]. Price Movement and Market Sentiment - Silver prices have recently retraced from a historical high of nearly $59 per ounce, dropping below $57, following an eight-day consecutive rise [1][3]. - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates that silver has fallen back below 70, suggesting a slowdown in the previous rapid price increase [1]. Historical Context - The collapses in 1980 and 2011 saw silver prices surge past $48 only to quickly retract, raising concerns among traders about a potential repeat of these patterns [4][6]. - In both historical instances, silver experienced rapid price increases followed by significant declines, which has led to current market apprehension [8]. Technical Analysis - Current market conditions show that silver has maintained support around the $48 level, unlike in previous years where it failed to do so [8]. - Analysts suggest that for a bearish double-top pattern to be confirmed, silver would need to drop below $46 [8]. Comparison with Gold - The current price behavior of silver is likened to gold's breakout process observed in late 2023 and early 2024, where gold also experienced sharp corrections after reaching new highs [10]. - Predictions indicate that silver may follow a similar trajectory, with a potential breakout expected in early 2026, similar to gold's performance [10]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The silver market is facing a structural supply shortage, with predictions of a supply deficit of 95 million ounces this year, contributing to a cumulative five-year deficit of 820 million ounces [12]. - The low inventory levels in China, nearing a ten-year low, further highlight the ongoing supply constraints in the silver market [12]. - The anticipated shift to a more accommodative monetary policy by the Federal Reserve is expected to support silver prices in the coming year [12].