美国延长俄油企授权，5000座加油站不关门，油价要涨还是跌？

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Department announced an extension of the operational authorization for Lukoil's foreign brand gas stations, while suspending some sanctions against the company, indicating a subtle easing of U.S. energy sanctions policy amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict [1][3]. Group 1: Company Overview - Lukoil is the second-largest oil company in Russia, operating over 5,000 gas stations in more than 30 countries, with approximately 15% of its market share in Europe and the U.S., serving tens of millions of consumers [1]. - Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in February 2022, Lukoil has faced over 20 sanctions from the U.S. and Europe, with its overseas assets frozen amounting to $12 billion, and a 28% decrease in crude oil exports compared to pre-conflict levels [3]. Group 2: Impact of U.S. Policy Changes - The extension of authorization aims to "mitigate the harm to consumers and suppliers in daily transactions," with data suggesting that a sudden shutdown of Lukoil gas stations in the U.S. could lead to a $0.3 per gallon increase in gasoline prices on the East Coast, resulting in supply chain losses exceeding $200 million [3]. - This adjustment directly suspends sanctions imposed by former President Trump in October 2024, which were among the most severe measures taken against Russia in response to the Ukraine war, causing significant fluctuations in the global oil market [3][4]. Group 3: Broader Implications - The timing of the easing of restrictions coincides with U.S. negotiations with Russia aimed at reaching a conflict resolution, reflecting a pragmatic approach similar to the EU's previous measures of implementing price caps rather than outright bans on Russian oil [4]. - Analysts suggest that the U.S. adjustment is a form of "precise loosening," ensuring domestic consumer protection and supply chain stability without fundamentally relaxing restrictions on core Russian energy exports, though it may affect international coordination on sanctions [4].