华宝基金：部分科技板块已经历深度调整，空间或基本到位

Group 1 - The technology sector has undergone a month and a half of adjustments, with expectations that a bottom may be reached around mid to late November [1] - The current view is that the low points of the bottom sector are becoming clearer, allowing for gradual attention to broad technology ETF products [1] - There is ongoing debate about whether high-positioned sectors may face further declines, while the next core direction for growth remains uncertain, with opportunities primarily in low-positioned varieties [1] Group 2 - A review of the A-share and US stock markets post-November 12 indicates that major companies like Nvidia, Tesla, and Kioxia have experienced significant declines due to cooling expectations of interest rate cuts [2] - The A-share technology sector is characterized by a "top sector shrinking circle" and "bottom sector overselling," with strong fundamental companies being deeply supported while weaker sectors face continuous selling [2] - New themes such as Google's TPU computing power and AI applications are trading based on marginal information [2] Group 3 - The current situation in the technology sector suggests that short-term rebounds are primarily liquidity-driven, with limited industrial logic, indicating a general rebound without a clear industry-level focus [3] - High-positioned sectors like Zhongji Xuchuang have not seen significant declines, while low-positioned sectors such as edge chips and domestic robots have returned to early May levels, indicating deep adjustments [3] Group 4 - Google's combination of large models and chips is strong, but significant short-term price increases for companies with nearly $4 trillion in market value may be challenging [4] - The competition surrounding large models is still unresolved, and Google's TPU's cost-effectiveness is weaker than Nvidia's offerings, suggesting that the potential disruption of Nvidia by TPU is not yet fully realized [4] - The ongoing competition and uncertainty regarding TPU's impact on Nvidia will continue into the first half of 2026, requiring further observation [4] Group 5 - The current ETF allocation strategy suggests that with the US stock market showing signs of a significant rebound, the main downward trend may have ended, making broad technology ETFs more valuable [5] - The focus should be on ETFs with certain safety margins, including the Huabao AI ETF and various Hong Kong technology ETFs, as the market has reached a favorable entry point for "buying the dip" [5]