黄金ETF持仓量报告解读（2025-12-5）美债反弹抑制黄金涨势

Core Insights - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, reported a total holding of 1050.58 tons of gold, an increase of 4 tons from the previous trading day [6] - Gold prices fluctuated around $4200 per ounce, closing at $4208.60, up $5.67 or 0.13% [6] - The U.S. labor market shows mixed signals, complicating market expectations for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, with an 85% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in the upcoming meeting [6][7] Group 1: Gold ETF Holdings - As of December 4, the SPDR Gold Trust's holdings reached 1050.58 tons, marking a notable increase [6] - The increase in ETF holdings coincides with gold prices stabilizing around the $4200 mark [6] Group 2: Market Conditions - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of cooling, with initial jobless claims dropping to the lowest level since September 2022, while layoffs remain high [6] - The mixed signals from the labor market are leading to a complex outlook for the Federal Reserve's policy direction [6][7] Group 3: Price Dynamics - The dollar index's decline is favorable for precious metals, but rising U.S. Treasury yields are suppressing gold's upward momentum [7] - Despite profit-taking, any pullback towards $4000 could attract new buyers, indicating strong underlying demand for gold [7] Group 4: Technical Analysis - Gold is forming a triangular consolidation pattern around $4200, with technical indicators showing no clear direction [8] - Resistance levels are identified at approximately $4230, $4240, and $4264, while support is noted at $4178 and $4165 [8]