Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-12-05 06:33Group 1 - Chinese brokerage stocks rose in the afternoon, with notable increases: Hongye Futures up 6.1% to HKD 3.48, Guolian Minsheng up 3.9% to HKD 5.6, Huatai Securities up 3.66% to HKD 18.39, Dongfang Securities up 3.27% to HKD 6.95, and Everbright Securities up 2.67% to HKD 9.22 [1] - According to a report by GF Securities, market activity is expected to rebound in 2025, with significant growth in brokerage and margin trading, while self-operated contributions will show differentiated elasticity. The brokerage industry's performance is projected to grow significantly, but valuations may lag [1] - By 2026, with improved expectations of a slow bull market and favorable policies, the industry's ROE is expected to continue rising, and alpha is likely to become more prominent, catalyzing institutional capital allocation [1] - The report suggests focusing on brokerages benefiting from optimized market structures and those that will gain from the accelerated recovery of wealth management and investment banking capital elasticity [1] Group 2 - The important policy window period at the end of the year is approaching, with the Central Political Bureau meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference expected to take place in mid-December, which will outline economic work for 2026 [2] - CITIC Securities indicates that the 2025 Central Economic Work Conference will likely focus on "seeking progress while maintaining stability," addressing consumption expansion, technological innovation, fiscal and monetary coordination, and real estate risk mitigation [2] - The core tasks in the short term will be to stabilize growth and expectations, while mid-term efforts will aim to optimize industrial and investment structures, and long-term goals will focus on building new productive forces and development models [2]