美联储吵归吵，12月降息仍成压倒性共识！

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points during the policy meeting on December 9-10 to support a cooling labor market, despite internal disagreements among policymakers regarding the necessity of further easing measures [1]. Group 1: Economic Forecasts and Predictions - A Reuters survey of over 100 economists indicates a strong consensus (approximately 85% probability) for a 25 basis point rate cut, aligning with previous survey results from November [1]. - The median forecast suggests that the Federal Reserve will lower rates two more times in 2026, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 3.00%-3.25% by year-end [3]. - Economic growth is projected to slow down, with the U.S. economy potentially growing by 3% in Q3, but expected to decelerate to 0.8% in the current quarter, with an average growth rate of 2.0% for both this year and 2026 [7]. Group 2: Internal Disagreements and Policy Signals - The FOMC has shown significant internal divisions, with some members favoring maintaining current rates while others oppose the October rate cut decision [1]. - Recent comments from various Federal Reserve officials, including New York Fed President Williams, indicate a growing support for rate cuts, suggesting that rates can be lowered without jeopardizing inflation targets [2]. - The ongoing uncertainty regarding fiscal policies, tariffs, and the independence of the Federal Reserve is contributing to mixed signals about future rate cuts, leading to increased hedging in financial markets [6]. Group 3: Inflation Expectations - There is a notable gap in inflation expectations, with consumer surveys indicating an inflation rate close to 4%, while market indicators such as TIPS suggest lower implied inflation rates [6]. - The preferred inflation measure by the Federal Reserve, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, is expected to remain above 2% until 2027 [7].