大佬Gave警告：明年美债或先崩，亚洲货币升值将终结黄金牛市

Core Viewpoint - Louis-Vincent Gave predicts a convergence of the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury, leading to a potential collapse of the U.S. bond market, drawing parallels with Japan's bond market deterioration and a "Turkey scenario" where bond and currency values are sacrificed for nominal GDP growth [1][3][4]. Group 1: U.S. Bond Market and Economic Implications - The bond market is expected to be the first to collapse among stocks, the dollar, and bonds, with Japan's current bond market situation serving as a warning sign [3][4]. - The Federal Reserve's policies, whether they involve rate cuts in December or in 2026, indicate a long-term trend towards the merging of the Fed and Treasury [4][5]. - The current environment of zero interest rates is driving investors towards riskier assets, as capital value is eroded [6][7]. Group 2: Gold and Asian Currencies - Gave emphasizes that gold's future is tied to the performance of Asian currencies, particularly the undervalued Japanese yen, suggesting that a potential appreciation of these currencies in 2026 could reduce demand for gold [1][8]. - The significant increase in gold and silver prices, with gold rising 55% and silver 100% this year, highlights their role as hedges against zero interest rates rather than inflation [6][7]. Group 3: AI Market and IPO Concerns - The potential IPO of AI companies like Anthropic raises concerns about a shift in market dynamics from rewarding spending to rewarding asset divestiture, indicating a possible bubble in the AI sector [9][10][12]. - Historical patterns suggest that capital-intensive bull markets eventually face scrutiny, as seen with Oracle's recent capital expenditure announcement and its subsequent market reaction [11][12]. - The AI sector's valuation challenges are underscored by the need for substantial revenue growth to justify current investment levels, with estimates suggesting AI must generate $2 trillion in annual revenue to align with its capital expenditures [13][14].