卓创资讯：糖价跌穿成本线，未来何去何从？

Core Viewpoint - The sugar prices in Guangxi are experiencing a downward trend due to increasing new sugar supply, leading to a shift from profit to loss for sugar factories [1][2][6]. Group 1: Sugar Supply and Pricing Trends - In mid-November, sugar prices in Guangxi peaked at 5725 yuan/ton due to low inventory levels, but prices have since fallen below 5000 yuan/ton by December 2, with an average price of 5475 yuan/ton, reflecting a 3.86% decrease month-on-month and a 10.32% decrease year-on-year [2][4]. - The number of sugar factories in Guangxi has increased, contributing to a steady rise in new sugar supply, which is expected to continue in the upcoming season, leading to increased sales pressure on sugar factories [2][4]. Group 2: Production and Cost Analysis - The theoretical sugar production cost in Guangxi remains high at 5624 yuan/ton, while the average selling price is 5465 yuan/ton, resulting in an average theoretical loss of 158.6 yuan/ton for sugar factories as of December 3 [6][7]. - The expected sugar production for the 2024/25 season is 646.5 million tons, accounting for approximately 57.92% of the national total, with a slight increase in production anticipated for the 2025/26 season despite adverse weather conditions [4][6]. Group 3: Seasonal Price Fluctuations - Historically, December has shown a high probability of price declines in the sugar market, and despite an increase in both supply and demand, the anticipated supply growth is expected to outpace demand growth, leading to a potential price drop [9]. - The expected price range for white sugar in Guangxi for December is between 5380 and 5550 yuan/ton, with increased supply from sugar factories and a gradual reduction in processed sugar supply [9].