Core Viewpoint - The report from GF Securities indicates that the home appliance industry is expected to experience a slowdown in growth in 2026 due to high base effects from the "old-for-new" policy in 2025, but leading companies are likely to outperform the industry due to their channel and brand advantages [1][3]. 2025 Review - The overall performance of the home appliance sector has lagged behind, with the Shenyin Wanguo Home Appliance Index showing a cumulative increase of 8.1% from January 1 to November 28, 2025, ranking 27th among all sectors and underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 10.4 percentage points [2]. - The home appliance retail sales from January to October 2025 increased by 20.1% year-on-year, driven by the "old-for-new" policy, but growth rates slowed in September and October due to high base effects [2]. - Home appliance export values from January to October 2025 decreased by 3.4% in USD terms and 2.5% in RMB terms, primarily impacted by the US-China trade war, yet the decline was manageable, reflecting resilience and global competitiveness [2]. 2026 Outlook - On the demand side, the home appliance industry is expected to slow down in 2026 due to high base effects from the "old-for-new" policy in 2025, but leading companies are anticipated to leverage their channel and brand advantages to outperform the market [3]. - The profitability outlook remains stable, with only copper prices rising recently, while shipping costs have returned to normal levels and exchange rates have shown slight appreciation, keeping overall cost pressures manageable [3]. - As of November 28, 2025, the price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) for the home appliance sector increased from 15.1x at the beginning of the year to 17.3x, placing it at the 66th percentile historically since 2016 [3]. 2026 Sub-industry Outlook - In the white goods sector, growth may slow due to high base effects from national subsidies, but exports are expected to remain resilient, supported by emerging markets, leading to stable growth for leading companies [4]. - The small appliance segment is likely to see continued improvement in average prices due to ongoing policy support, with the vacuum cleaner industry expected to gain market share overseas, indicating significant long-term growth potential [4]. - In the black goods sector, product structure upgrades are anticipated to drive price increases and improve profitability, with overseas market share expected to continue rising [5]. - The two-wheeler industry is projected to maintain growth in 2026 with the full implementation of new regulations, as smaller manufacturers exit the market, allowing leading companies to increase their market share, particularly in overseas markets [5].