交银国际：医药稳中向好趋势不改 选股偏好回归基本面

Group 1 - The pharmaceutical industry is expected to experience a critical turning point in 2025, with a stable and positive trend continuing into 2026, influenced by factors such as policy, fundamentals, overseas investment environment, and liquidity [1] - The sector is currently undervalued, and catalysts are anticipated to drive upward momentum, with the realization of value from innovative research further pushing the overall valuation upward [1] - Stock selection will likely return to fundamentals and valuations, focusing on stocks with expected fundamental discrepancies that are still undervalued [1] Group 2 - In the innovative drug/prescription drug segment, short-term focus should be on overseas transactions and performance, with long-term value driven by innovation and iteration [2] - Key short-term catalysts include progress in overseas clinical data, inclusion in medical insurance, and reaching breakeven points, with leading Hong Kong stocks expected to maintain double-digit revenue and net profit growth [2] - Recommended stocks include: 1) 3SBio, Deking Pharmaceutical, and BeiGene, which have rich catalysts and limited impact from procurement; 2) Xiansheng Pharmaceutical, Hutchison China MediTech, and Legend Biotech, which are significantly undervalued with clear long-term growth logic [2] Group 3 - The CXO sector is expected to maintain rapid performance growth, but long-term trends indicate tightening regulations in the U.S. and increasing difficulty in new drug development, suggesting that industry consolidation may just be beginning [3] - Leading players in high-growth segments are expected to have higher long-term certainty [3] Group 4 - High-quality private hospitals are recommended as the pressure on cost control eases and outdated capacity is eliminated, allowing private medical institutions to return to a faster growth trajectory [4] - Recommended stocks include: Guoshengtang and Haijia Medical, which are expected to have short-term performance rebounds and clear long-term expansion paths [4]